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New tariffs?

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Jonathan started a discussion

I'm sure I'm not the only one who heard this news. Personal politics aside, I wonder what effect this will have on the Scotch market in the US and how long it will take for consumers to feel those effects.

[link text] (forbes.com/sites/felipeschrieberg/…)

4 years ago

18 replies

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

Interesting. He's determined to alienate the U.S. from the rest of the world, not to mention a pretty substantial segment of the American people.

4 years ago 0

@casualtorture

Trade tariffs like this are a lose-lose for everyone involved. This will be passed on to the consumer and some will be absorbed before that. How much is passed to us is the big question. No matter what side of politics you are on, just remember that "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one." We're getting closer and closer to the latter...

4 years ago 0

@Nock
Nock replied

This is a troubling development. Buy what you can while you can until October 18th! I know I will.

4 years ago 1Who liked this?

Wierdo replied

I wonder how this will play out in the UK market? Will distilleries that tend divert all their energy to pursuing the US dollar start paying attention to the UK again?

Will prices in the UK increase to match what US customers have to pay?

Will they just concentrate even more on the Asian market?

4 years ago 1Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@Wierdo - I'd imagine that sellers would look to absorb the hit as much as possible - that's what seems to have happened with bourbon imports here as the hike in prices I expected hasn't happened.

Just a thought - if/when (lol) the UK leave the EU at the end of the month wouldn't this tariff on UK exports to the US be null and void? Or is that like asking how one prepares a ship for hyperspace to the Zeta Reticuli system?

4 years ago 0

@MadSingleMalt

Much chatter and possibly good info to be found here:

reddit.com/r/Scotch/…

One thing to note, @BlueNote, is that this seems to be more the result of a years-long trade dispute, rather than the latest Trumpy tariff development.

4 years ago 0

@RianC
RianC replied

@MadSingleMalt @BlueNote - Some interesting comments on that link. Far as I can tell the EU somehow shafted the US over a decade ago by giving subsidies illegally, apparently, so I can see why President Trump might want to settle the score. Though he doesn't normally seem the type to hold grudges ... grimacing

Politics aside, I hope that this doesn't negatively impact on sales prices for you all too drastically, and I'm still not sure if leaving the EU will affect this tariff - I'm guessing not?

Maybe producers will be forced to cut back on prices? I'd wager they have some wiggle room! One can dream ...

4 years ago 1Who liked this?

Jonathan replied

The tariffs start tomorrow. Effects will be palpable after the quarter. Still, get what you can while you can if you live in the US. I don't want to be alarmist, but who knows? Maybe I'm a worrier--it's in my genes. Even with a great haul today after classes, I realized that time will NOT even this out,

4 years ago 1Who liked this?

Jonathan replied

P.S. Another liquor store owner said that the price changes due to tariffs won't be felt so fast. The holiday season should be ok, as Diageo is absorbing much of the extra costs for now. The holiday gift packs will be harder to find, however. He is used to getting plenty of them around this time of year.

4 years ago 0

Jonathan replied

Three days ago, I had a bottle of Corry saved for 77$ When I called to double check, the price was 109$.Fortunately, the manager was a mensch and kept the price at 77$. I paid via phone immediately. He suggested that the 30$ price increase had some something to with the anticipated effect of the tariffs. I'm lucky, but what kind of cokamamie increases will also follow?

For those in the US, buy what you can when you can. There are so many other more things to worry about---i.e., the selling out of the Kurds---but pay attention to these relatively small things too I'm happy to take on any contrarians. Whisky is nothing in the scheme of things, but what Trump is doing is rotten to the core.

4 years ago 0

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@Jonathan The proposed tariffs should not affect the price of existing inventory.

4 years ago 2Who liked this?

@Nozinan
Nozinan replied

@BlueNote SHOULD being the operative word...

4 years ago 2Who liked this?

RikS replied

@BlueNote ever seen the gas price at the pump go DOWN again once the crude oil price drops....

4 years ago 2Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@RikS No, but it certainly goes up immediately if the price of crude goes up.

4 years ago 2Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

I'm thinking of asking my Oregon in-laws to pick up a couple of bottles of Laphroaig Cask Strength before any tariffs kick in. It's currently $75 US.

4 years ago 0

Jonathan replied

From Scotchnoob: "I have spoken to a few people in the retail liquor industry in California and they say that because the taxes hit the importer, their markups could get amplified (compounded) by the distributor and retailer markups. In other words, we could see price increases of MORE than 25% at the shelves. There’s still a lot of uncertainty, and more retailers won’t know what effect these tariffs will have until they get updated price sheets from their distributors. Furthermore, nobody knows what effect Brexit might or might not have on this dispute.

Good luck out there."

4 years ago 0

RikS replied

@BlueNote exactly... price hikes tend to be too often a one-way-street

4 years ago 1Who liked this?

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