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Prices (again ... )

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@RianC
RianC started a discussion

OK, let me start by saying I am fully mindful of the risk of being a megaphone for a broken record, but I wanted to know if others are seeing a sudden spike in prices?

We've all seen prices increase by crazy amounts over the last ten years or so but Ive begun to recently notice a spike in prices, pretty much across the board, on all whisky: e.g. Lagavulin 16 has gone from c£50 to +£65 and some new Ledaig releases (that were always fairly priced, relatively speaking) are asking silly money for the privilege.

So, is this just a UK thing or is this happening elsewhere?

I've said before that once prices get to a certain point, I'll simply stop buying them. And, honestly, I think we're reaching close to it (ha! joy ). Ive also been looking at Armagnacs and it's extremely telling when one compares costs with similar aged, and especially older, whiskys - 'If they can do it, why can't they?' kind of philosophy. Mind you, I expect that situation may change in the not too distant as it gains in popularity and becomes more malt drinkers' alternative.

2 years ago

29 replies

@casualtorture

Depends on the brand. Islay whisky around here has skyrocketed. Laphroig 10 has gone from $30 to $60. And good luck finding Ardbeg Oogie or Corry for less than $100 now. I'm sure they'll use inflation as an excuse to keep going. Time for consumers to pay back all that government stimulus spending.

2 years ago 3Who liked this?

@OdysseusUnbound

Well prices here in Ontario are already high, but they have indeed inched higher in the last few months. As for cognac/armagnac as a malternative, the idea is laughable with the prices and offerings here in Ontario. XO cognacs/armagnacs are only "guaranteed" to be 10 years old and the cheapest one costs $107 CAD here. All of the really nice (or moderately nice) ones are basically non-existant in Ontario. Pass the Courvoisier, please. disappointed

2 years ago 4Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@OdysseusUnbound - sorry to hear of your armagnac shortfalls! Funny, I would have thought that, with the French connection, there would be a great demand? Then again, I forget about the mafia-style way booze is controlled there and, well, yeah, bummer, dude!

In all seriousness, I hope you can source some, should you wish to do so. The Baron de Sigognac 10 I'm sipping has turned into a delightful experience. Less sweet than usual brandy and definitely leans to a whisky drinkers palate, I would say.

& @casualtorture - it seems that this hike is somewhat a global phenomenon then. Watch this space, as ever, but it makes me somewhat less guilty for amassing such a horde grin

'tis a shame, though ...

2 years ago 5Who liked this?

@Nozinan
Nozinan replied

To be honest I have not been paying much attention to prices at the LCBO since COVID started. Much of what I have bought has been reasonably priced or not comparable (Israeli malts and such). I've been more focused in purchasing things I want, and as I have not been dusty-hunting in Calgary in a couple of years I have not been purchasing much for other people there either. So I have not been following prices.

I was surprised recently when I saw a bunch of Glenmorangies offered at under $100 CAD. I picked up the Quinta Ruban for $99.75 with the intent (fulfilled) of opening it right away, not letting it languish in my collection. It was a calculated risk. I liked the 12 year version. I knew I might be tempted by FORO to buy another. 2 Drams in....yes I am. Given the age, 46% and quality, I'm surprised the KGBO offered it at such a bargain. If my collection were half its size I would buy two more to have in reserve. But I simply have. no. room. If it shoots up in price or disappears I will likely regret it. I know, I need to work on that...

But I remain surprised that the price is so low.

That said, I have not been doing much shopping so I can't speak to recent trends.

2 years ago 4Who liked this?

MRick replied

At the last PEI Spirits Festival in November 2019, I tried the Dalmore 12, and liked it. The price was about $100 CDN. It sold out before I got around to buying a bottle. It has recently reappeared. The new price? $150 CDN.

2 years ago 3Who liked this?

@Hewie
Hewie replied

Yes and no here in NZ. Most prices are pretty static - the bigger issue is availability! Due to shipping delays and the lack of 'standard bottles' there are more and more duty-free / travel exclusive bottlings appearing in the online shops. Bizzarely my friends were just commenting how the price of Aberlour A'bunadh has dropped slightly and is routinely fond for $115 NZD (60 GBP, $82 USD). The last bottle I bought was SB10 for $90 NZD. I think we're doing ok pricewise.

2 years ago 2Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@Hewie - That's good to hear - I'd be interested to see if that changes in the near future ...

A few quid here or there I have no issue with but these huge hikes (@MRick) seem to be happening everywhere. I suspect covid (and associated events) is used as the reason but im dubious.

Anyway, no point grumbling but I do think it's worthwhile being aware of what's going on, and, more importantly, why.

2 years ago 3Who liked this?

@OdysseusUnbound

@MRick I may be the only member of Connosr who really enjoys Dalmore 12 (at least the more recent bottles I've tried), but $150 is just uncivilized.

2 years ago 4Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@MRick @OdysseusUnbound @Hewie @RianC Covid/supply chain problems: that's the standard excuse these days for these ridiculous price increases. The law of supply and demand has definitely shifted to the supplier's benefit. i.e. decreased supply creates increased demand and justifies increased prices. I won't be buying a new vehicle any time soon.

IMHO all Dalmore has always been overpriced. I guess they have to pay big money to Richard Paterson, their resident performance artist.

2 years ago 5Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@BlueNote - Yeah but he nose what he's doing grin

2 years ago 4Who liked this?

MRick replied

Another way to increase prices is to ‘rework’ the core range. It worked for Balblair, Pulteney, etc.

2 years ago 2Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@OdysseusUnbound I hadn't heard that. He's actually pretty entertaining and does know what he's talking about when he stick his beak into a beaker of whisky.

2 years ago 1Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@MRick Good point. There are a few of them using that ploy. Benromach comes to mind. Pretty high prices on the re-branded Bladnoch and Glenallachie too.

2 years ago 2Who liked this?

Wierdo replied

One thing that has changed recently in the UK at least, around pricing is the price of independent bottles. Pretty recently, say 4 or 5 years ago an independent bottle was a good chance to get hold of something that was a bit of an alternative presentation to the core range. Probably cask strength, NCF etc and it would be cheaper than anything from an actual producer. Because Indys were a bit of a niche thing. Not that many people were interested. If they charged big money for them no-one would buy them.

With the growing interest in whisky and the growing numbers of people like us who have a serious interest in whisky that has now significantly changed. Because of limited numbers and the fact so many people are now interested in them many indys are now more expensive than official bottlings. You can easily pay £60-70 for an indy bottling that is only 10 years old. A few releases by some independents sell out entirely on release like Daftmill or Springbank Local Barley. And I cringe when I see the fawning over some indys like North Star Spirits. People seem to treat them like rock stars and I really don't see what all the fuss is about? Their bottles aren't any better than those from many other indys but everyone seems to think they are. No-one seems to mention that they no longer bottle at cask strength but at a strength that looks like cask strength e.g. 51% 52% etc. I wonder if a lot of the hype surrounding them is because the owner came from the industry and its people doing him a favour in terms of creating a buzz?

2 years ago 3Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@Wierdo - I think the ralfy effect, following his support and endorsements, have really helped North Star too. And, in fairness, they seem to be bottling decent stuff at, relatively, decent prices. But I agree, They do seem to be the 'in' independent bottlers of the moment. I'll keep an eye on their bottling strengths though.

're pricing: Ultimately it all comes down to business and therefore, as a customer, purchaser of product, consumer, or whatever else one might call it, If I don't feel I'm getting a good deal then I will happily (OK, begrudgingly ;) walk away. I have to ask myself if the prices I'm paying are worth it and more and more I'm thinking 'no, not really'. The most frustrating part though is that I know I will really enjoy some but would have to pay over the odds to have it.

End of the day, it's whisky, not an elixir of life-everlasting and I think I need to remind myself of that from time to time. As do the producers ...

2 years ago 7Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@RianC Your last sentence sums it up nicely. Our little first world problems pale in comparison to world hunger, world peace and the coming climate calamity. Somehow or other, we got to be the chosen people on this planet. Let’s not take that for granted. That doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy what we’ve got and be thankful for it. I don’t feel too guilty about enjoying a dram of Bunnahaibhain 18 with Cannonball Adderley on the spinner on this gorgeous Autumn Sunday evening.

Cheers.

2 years ago 6Who liked this?

@casualtorture

is a spinner a vinyl record player? I've never heard it called that haha

2 years ago 1Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@casualtorture Yep, slang for turntable.

I have a few other bad habits besides whisky. There's vinyl records, fountain pens, watches, audio equipment.....The older I get, the worse it gets, according to my supremely tolerant wife. It's probably time I started attending Collectors Anonymous meetings.

2 years ago 5Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

Two years since I started this thread and it's fair to say things hadn't even really got going yet!

Some good deals can still be had, but most bottles have now increased by £10-15. I saw a recent Vpub with Roy (aquavitae) and he compared prices now to those a couple of years back. Some changes, sure, but apparently directly in line with inflation.

So my take is that, post covid, (some) distilleries cashed in, then we suddenly found ourselves on the brink of WW3 and inflation, rising costs and taxes have done the rest of the 'damage'.

I also just noticed that armagnac has begun to catch up with whisky pricing, especially for age. Bummer!

Such is life, I suppose. Well, glad I have a stash and, whilst I don't mind paying a bit more, I won't be taking any gambles anymore either. No, Sir! Luckily, I now know what I like and get samples of things I might not go for myself, so I am able to buy with confidence and some realistic expectation of what to expect. I'll take that.

As Roy pointed out, where this leaves the industry - in terms of shifting all these 'exclusive' bottlings - is anyone's guess. I see that many products, Diageo's starlets being a prime example, are often heavily discounted years after initial release ...

Are they playing a dangerous game or simply making hay while the sun shineth? thinking

Cheers all and a Merry Xmas snowman tada gift christmas_tree

4 months ago 3Who liked this?

@fiddich1980
fiddich1980 replied

@RianC I would agree that the current economic conditions have had a direct influence on raising whisky prices. The multinationals continue to charge the premium price for their "special releases". Then reduce the price on those bottles a year later. I would chuck up to the conspicuous consumer. The first in pay a premium price. Yes, they are making hay while the sunshine but, on the winter solstice.

A bit of patience and the long game may be the best purchasing decision. The bottle flippers are still there but, their margins have decreased with buyers tightening their discretionary spending.

The raw material shortages will continue and energy cost, will keep prices high. I suspect that much of the grain/barley production comes from the European bread basket.

The auction market has seen a pull back in inflated bids. Many mid range bottles get no bids going, unsold. A few of my auction purchases came in under retail price including auction fees. However, those bottles no longer exist in the market place and flew under the radar of current spirit buyers.

Armagnac and Cognac prices may not climb as much as whisky prices. Those spirits came late to the party. The premium pricing is primarily on vintage and single cask bottlings.

Rum prices have pretty much plateaued with exception on dead distilleries i.e. Caroni

Tequila price have climbed with growing interest in the southern United States.

Merry X-Mas to everyone and let's all hope for a more Peaceful New Year.

4 months ago 4Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@fiddich1980 - yes, auctions have been fun to watch over the last couple of years.

Springbank 10 is a good example of the changing state of play: every auction (especially after a new batch is released) is chock full.of them, yet they often sell for less than rrp. Same with many others. Glendronach 18 - sells for £180 rrp yet are often under £120 at auction ...

Totally agree with you that being patient and looking on the secondary market is a wise play. Often though, such as with many Mortlachs (my vice!), they are snapped up very quickly, as are any malts that those 'in the know ' desire, so a quick purchase at full price is then required.

I wonder if the Asian market is also contributing to these price hikes, especially for the 'totem' malts? As in they are being 'premiumised' for the market.

What's clear though is that many contemporary prices are too high; people's reluctance to buy them shows us this.

It's an interesting landscape.

4 months ago 3Who liked this?

@Nozinan
Nozinan replied

I’ve recently decided to increase the price I am willing to pay for something that I really want. And I really hope I decide to drink this stuff and not stash it away. Time will tell.

What is clear is that if prices are higher than I want to pay, I have plenty of bottles to keep me happy for the rest of my life. So that puts me in the driver’s seat for personal consumption.

4 months ago 4Who liked this?

@RianC
RianC replied

@Nozinan - hear hear!

It's also a positive that secondary prices have fallen below many rrp's - the more cut-throat flippers will soon lose interest ... Hopefully grin

4 months ago 1Who liked this?

@BlueNote
BlueNote replied

@Nozinan That's my situation, too. Plenty of good stuff in the cabinet to keep me going for longer than I can possibly live. I keep trying to stop buying, but when a 17 year old SMOS cask strength Ledaig is staring you in the face, well, what can a guy do?!

4 months ago 1Who liked this?

@65glenfarclas

@RianC "I saw a recent Vpub with Roy (aquavitae) and he compared prices now to those a couple of years back. Some changes, sure, but apparently directly in line with inflation."

I was surprised by the results (was expecting him to confirm the current narrative that whiski pricing has jumped the shark). As always, there are still plenty of good "value" (relative to the times, not relative to yesteryear) whiski, but those tend to be the bottles the enthusiasts have already sampled and are no longer interested in buying. Producers know this, so they push up the pricing on the FOMO special/new/limited/single cask/etc releases - these are not what the average person cares about.

4 months ago 2Who liked this?

@Timp
Timp replied

Interesting topic @RianC and comments. Happy Christmas to you and yours too.

My fear is for some of the new distilleries in their “lean years” after the flush of the their first bottlings. Have they generated enough love for their product to keep people buying? Particularly the ones with high prices for their initial offerings.

I hope so for their sake but I guess it comes down to how each project is financed.

Personally I have also increased the amount I might spend and I have been buying a few bottles that were stand out for me in the past. I don’t have the money to chase the unicorn so it’s what I know and wish I hadn’t drunk for me I think.

No doubt I will keep buying some cheaper bottles but I do think about what I could get for double the money? I also know this is feeding the flippers so when I am somewhere with a decent whisky or spirits shop I do like to support them. That won’t change.

Less purchasing generally next year but a few higher value ones for the stash is the way I am heading.

Seasons greetings to everyone. Cheers. Tim

4 months ago 5Who liked this?

@Timp
Timp replied

Interesting topic @RianC and comments. Happy Christmas to you and yours too.

My fear is for some of the new distilleries in their “lean years” after the flush of the their first bottlings. Have they generated enough love for their product to keep people buying? Particularly the ones with high prices for their initial offerings.

I hope so for their sake but I guess it comes down to how each project is financed.

Personally I have also increased the amount I might spend and I have been buying a few bottles that were stand out for me in the past. I don’t have the money to chase the unicorn so it’s what I know and wish I hadn’t drunk for me I think.

No doubt I will keep buying some cheaper bottles but I do think about what I could get for double the money? I also know this is feeding the flippers so when I am somewhere with a decent whisky or spirits shop I do like to support them. That won’t change.

Less purchasing generally next year but a few higher value ones for the stash is the way I am heading.

Seasons greetings to everyone. Cheers. Tim

Ps watched the Aqvavitae episode too and I was also interested in Roy’s analysis.

4 months ago 1Who liked this?

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W@Nozinan@OdysseusUnbound@casualtorture