Whisky as an investment

Go for the crystal decanter Dalmores for sure!

@casualtorture , I just checked your profile. You're in Nashville? Consider how "liquid" (yes, I'll be the first with the worst) your investment will be if you're trying to sell whisky in the US.

Beyond that, I say go for it if you think it's fun and if you're OK with drinking your investment if the whole resale thing doesn't pan out.

My main caution would be: What do you know that everyone else doesn't know? Surely the expectation of buying today what will become more valuable tomorrow is predicated on that edge you see yourself having.

Also, I'm sure some people will tell you not to become one of those icky investors. But who cares. I doubt you'd hoover up so much supply as to affect anyone else's ability to buy what they want to drink.

@MadSingleMalt I was a finance major in school so I pride myself in having a bit of that edge. I made a killing on Jones Soda (JSDA) last year. As far as reselling in Nashville, I know bourbon would be easier than scotch for sure. And I'm talking long term here. 20, 30 years.

As long as you limit yourself to bottles that retail for >$150 go ahead. under that those bottles are for drinking...

@casualtorture, the time to have done the whisky speculation would have been 2002-2012. Sure, there will still be some rise in prices, and some new rare releases, but you won't be able to make them work for you unless you have some special in in order to get supply of the scarce stuff. Ten years ago all you had to be was someone who liked whisky while the rest of the world didn't. Now the competition is fierce. This is late in the curve. Opportunities do still exist, but you will have to become a very nimble trader.

Yes, I did enter the lottery for the Pappy Van Winkle 25 yo which would have cost me over $ 2,000, with a secondary market asking price beginning at $ 10,000. No, I had no more than a 1 in 5,000 chance of them offering me that bottle to buy.

After a break from whisky, I have been contemplating getting back into it a bit, some to drink and maybe some things to squirrel away in a buy 2 so I can drink one and save one situation. I think @Victor nailed it on the head. Seems like the prime time for investing has passed.

I got rid of most of my collection but still have some nice bottles. What I intended to be a very nice bottle to drink (e.g., HP 30) is now so crazy in price I hesitate more to open.

@Victor - I wonder if bottles like Brora and Port Ellen are exceptions. Also, maybe the 30+ year offerings?

@msudukie Good point. I bought a few that I liked at the time and 2-3 years later they are listed for double or triple online. The higher the monetary value, the harder it is to open. But if you paid a smaller amount, don't feel so bad. If you bought it to enjoy, enjoy!

@msudukie, whisky price appreciation is like numismatic or philatelic price appreciation: the best quality of the rarest products are what the big money spenders are after. So, yes, If I were trying to speculate on whisky into the future I would be looking at the truly rare, older releases of the most well-loved distilleries. One would still need to tread very carefully, and most importantly of all, not overspend on the products for speculation. It would require a firm discipline to say "No" if the price is not right for a profit.

@Victor I guess I'm part of the problem of whisky gaining popularity since I'm relatively new. XD

@casualtorture, au contraire! In some ways you are much more hard-core than the old hard-core whisky fans because you are willing to pay the much higher prices now to play the game. Go back and read through the Connosr postings pre-2014 and you will see that a lot of people dropped out of participation because of price. At first they complained of higher prices, and now you don't see them posting here anymore. True, some grew tired waiting for the Connosr upgrade, but I doubt those people are active online elsewhere regarding whisky. There is no question but that the costs of entry into this hobby have gone up a very great deal. It takes a lot of scratch now, to buy the bottles. Maybe that's why the Canadians in Connosr are so vocal here: all but Canadian whisky has been expensive there for many years. They had to be rather hard-core to play the whisky-buying game all along.

One clarification: yes, some formerly active Connosr members are active elsewhere online with respect to whisky-love now...BUT, those were not the cost-conscious ones of whom I have been speaking. The ones who left were the ones frequently citing costs and relative values.

Would I be buying 350 bottles of whisky now, as I did from 2008-2014? I doubt it. But in the current conditions I may still have bought 75-100. Those 350 bottles probably cost me about the same as 125 bottles would now.

Some good ideas are on the table here, but I think it all still comes down to either (a) luck, or (b) knowing something that the rest of us don't.

I suppose the exception is the stuff that's priced artificially low (like @Victor 's lottery bottles). Obviously, you can resell that for more if you manage to get one.

Beyond that, I expect most products are already priced right, because they're priced by people for whom this isn't just a hobby or a fun speculative dabble, but a profession. Career marketers earn their pay by knowing how high they can price the latest, I dunno, Balvenie single barrel or whatever. Maybe they get it wrong sometimes and you can spot something that's undervalued, but I doubt many of us could do that consistently enough to make it pay.

Remember when Bruichladdich started the PC series? I think everyone was bitching about the high prices. "$100 for a 5-year-old whisky?! Ridiculous!" Who here was smarter-than-everyone-else to recognize that those would become valued more than that and actually stock up at $100/pop? Anyone?

And what are the equivalents that you would stockpile today? Aside from winning the allocation lotteries or filling a van at Feis Ile, what can you readily buy today that people will pay more for tomorrow?

Thanks to @Victor, today I learned what "numismatic" and "philatelic" mean, and I discovered how hard-core I am!

Thanks!

@Victor Interesting comment about Canadians. I didn't seem to care about the prices much but had nothing to compare to. I still don't make decisions based on price comparisons unless I know I can ACTUALLY get what I want where it is cheaper - like Calgary.

For regular high end stuff if it's 20 dollars or whatever more than in the US, that's not what I'm bringing back as my one bottle, or asking someone to get. It's the stuff that is not available here at all.

I think what has curtailed my purchasing is that I realized how much I was spending on a cabinet that was so full I might never finish it. Who am I kidding? Not "might". I have dozens of bottles in my to save column on my database. Save for what? How man special occasions will there be? And one and a half times again in my to open column. None of these were bought as investments, all had the intention of being consumed, as are all the ones I am buying nowadays. But the sad truth is I don't have enough years to get to all of those puppies.

This year I've considered leaving Connosr not because of the prices or lack of interest, but because of the effect it has on my wanting to seek out and get new things. FOMO, Peer pressure whatever. But the site's too much fun and I like too many people here.

Is irony the right word? I have a more extensive cabinet (the one online is just open bottles)than some liquor stores, but I feel like it's minor league on this site. Strange.

@MadSingleMalt - my only thought to your question of what tomorrow is worth more today would maybe be highly sought after offerings from closed distilleries (e.g., Brora, Port Ellen, Rosebank). Would the fact of only dwindling supply over time increase demand and thus price?

@msudukie , sure, that's definitely possible.

But if that thought has occurred to you, do you think it's also occurred to the companies sitting on casks of the stuff, retailers who have bottles on the shelf, other drinkers who've watched the prices on those bottles rise over the past few years? These folks—especially the business folks in the first two camps and similar positions—are professionals making the same decision you are, but at higher stakes: "What value should I put on this item, today in 2017, given the current market and my expectations of the future market?" If you think you can out-guess them, then go for it. Good luck.

Generally speaking, for any good that everyone "knows" is going to be worth a lot more tomorrow, that inflation will already be built into the price today.

@MadSingleMalt - great points!

So @casualtorture, what's your edge? What's undervalued today?

@msudukie , what else are you sitting on that's rocketed up in value—the nice bottles you intended to drink that are now so crazy in price you hesitate to open?

Just curious.

And I checked your profile. You're in New York? Can you easily sell your stuff there if you wanted to?

•If not—then don't worry about the current market price. It's not really relevant. At least, try not to! :)

•If you can—then would you consider selling? As I often say, a decision to sell is the same as a decision to buy: On one hand, you have a bottle of whisky; on the other, you have a sum of money. Which do you want more?

@MadSingleMalt - I updated my cabinet as sadly had to downsize my collection a few years ago.

The three bottles which skyrocketed since I purchased in 2013 are Brora 30 Year (2010), HP 30, and Balvenie Tun 1401 Batch 3. Based on hunting around on auctions, FB sites, and retail, it appears they have conservatively increased 250%, level way beyond where I would have thought about buying a bottle back then. I felt crazy paying what I did then.

I was thinking about your comments more and wonder if the factors you mentioned back then were the same but just not as bad, at least with the Brora based on my prior question around the mothballed distilleries. Brora has been hot for years - Diageo, retailers, and consumers knew it then. The advantage I had back then was the ability to buy bottles that were >$300. I am fortunate I can still afford (in a much more limited way) these types of bottles. Just for conversation - let's say I buy a bottle of the 30 year Brora from 2004 which retails around $1700. No way to know if that is a "good" price but wouldn't we predict it will be worth more in 10 years? If not, isn't the worst case I have an amazing bottle to actually drink (yes, I know that goes against my whole logic of having a hard time drinking very expensive bottles)?

You final questions hit upon a great point. Selling and shipping whisky is a pain in the butt. There are some buyers in NY but most often I shipped when I sold my collection. Too much risk for me to do again with these bottles.

I still love whisky so think your view is right - don't worry about the market price, just drink it.

I knew a guy who had bought 9 bottles of Black Bowmore (30 YO) at $100 apiece. He never tasted it. Then he died with $250 000 collection of spirits. That's a tragedy (that he never asted it).

Had I never met him, I'd be 1000s of dollars richer but friend poorer, and would have zero whisky in my cabinet. I'd still have Cognac, likely unopened, from the in-laws...

@msudukie There is another solution to your problem. Organize a tasting session for your fellow Connosr at a reasonable price and you will make some friends, you will taste each of your bottles and still make some money. Ask around.

I can dig @Robert99's line of thought here.

Maybe you could join a local club who wants to buy your bottles—or accept them as dues or whatever? Then you can share the bottles, meet some new whisky buddies, get some value back on your "investment," and still taste them yourself!

@MadSingleMalt @Robert99 - I like the idea. I will have to research groups in my area. Cheers.

@Nozinan I do agree that this site makes the hobby more of an obsession. And yeah some of the cabinets on here are crazy nice. Even if I had 25 nice bottles I'd still feel like a rookie compared to some of the impressive cabinets I've seen.

@MadSingleMalt OGD 114 is still $25 in Nashville and I think Beamsuntory will either raise the price or make less of it eventually. I'd bet money on it. That would be one to stock up on.

@casualtorture Agree. One of the best bourbons I've had, at a price that (if I could get it regularly) would allow frequent tasting.

I started investing a few years ago, and keep track of current values at auction houses as best I can as a way of keeping tabs on my portfolio. I'd say my collection at current value is roughly double what I've paid. Some bottles have flatlined or, in cases where I overpaid, gone down in value, but luckily most seem to have gone up. The trick of course will be if I can sell them without paying steep auction fees etc....

@talexander Or, if you win the lottery, you could open them!

Preferably with me close by...

@Nozinan Ha - that's true! Though realistically, I would only open them if their value didn't appreciate as much as necessary - so you never know!