What is happening at Jim Beam?

Sic transit gloria mundi. Jim Beam is just going the route the other distilleries are taking-- maximizing output and profit. The OGD114 elimination I have long been expecting. The large percentage markup for the price of Booker's appears very deliberately calculated to lessen demand, as does the reduction in the future frequency of Booker's releases. It is the same old story..."I can get Booker's any time I want for $ 45" is true until you CAN'T. This sort of thing has happened over and over and over again in the last 5 years. Expect it.

Really sad for people who enjoy good whisky. Appealing to the masses and forgetting the discerning connosr will be a big mistake in the long run. (See what I did there with connosr?) hehe

This is an unfortunate development. OGD 114 is a "best in class" bourbon. Nothing in that price range or several rungs higher approaches its quality. Even blinded to price it holds its own against more premium products.

Booker's .... well, this was the first bourbon that really grabbed me, and the second one I tried. I've managed to pick up a few bottles at < $70 Canadian - I'm assuming the $100 is in US figures and that should the LCBO bring more in I would suspect it to be in the $150 range in that case, which would effectively double it from 2015 prices.

Between the Booker's and the OGD 114 I have enough to last me a few years, but not being able to replace it is unfortunate.

As @Victor wrote, this was to be expected. Scotch went first, Indian and other Asian single malts have become less affordable, and now it's bourbon and rye. The last bastion appears to be Canadian whisky (but see recent price changes for Gibson's 18) but that may fall as well.

Isn't Alberta Distillers owned by Beam Suntori? This may foreshadow unpleasant changes to come.

Sooner or later there will be backlash, a reckoning, for these greedy corporations. Here's to hoping that a few will remain decimated but standing so we can still enjoy good whisky while the others crash and burn!

My vote on next on the "chopping block", which means, in this case, the 'price augmentation block', would be 1) Wild Turkey Rare Breed, and 2) the rest of the Jim Beam Small Batch Collection whiskeys, especially the higher ABV ones, such as Knob Creek Single Barrel Reserve and Baker's. I laid in my supply of KCSBR just last year at the best current prices. I do not expect those prices to last much longer. KCSBR and Wild Turkey Rare Breed are underpriced relative to the rest of the market. This is not likely to last much longer.

More barrel strength younger whiskey is likely to be the primary answer by the US distilleries to meet the demand for higher-test products, I think. Lots of barrel strength 4 year old stuff, probably. Some 6 and 7 yo barrel strength stuff is now largely becoming the $ 60 domestic premium (separate from "super-premium" = almost ungettable) market. Typically MGPI IBs' brands now sit at the domestic price points of PVW and BTAC 5 years ago. Booker's scheduled price increase will put some additional pricing pressure on these whiskeys too. At some point the price increases will have the intended effect of lowering demand.

I feel like we are starting to reach peak bourbon, but then I look around and it's still growing. In the UK over the past year interest has intensified. We have loads of new bourbon bars and restaurants in London this year. Loads more people getting into it. Basically it's like craft beer. Look at what is happening in America and within a few years it will be happening all around the world.

Over the last year I've been hoarding and overbuying on the basis that rare stuff isn't going to be around much longer. It's paid off so far, because already there's stuff I can no longer get.

But part of me wonders if the wheels might come off. All this distillery expansion, new brands, new distilleries. If demand flattens out or drops then people are going are going to be very exposed in the business

@MuddyFunster You bring up a lot of excellent points.

By "Peak Bourbon" I think it's most important to know what you mean by this. Do you mean (as in general usage of the term "Peak Oil") that the demand has reached and exceeded maximum supply, or, (as some people are now using the term - outside the US - where the focus on climate change has affected use) that the demand has now peaked and will eventually go down? Both are plausible but the effects may be a bit different.

If you use the first definition, peak supply with increased demand, what we can expect is scarcity of more and more products, with a resultant increase in price of bourbons that may be sustained for some time. The ultra-premium stuff will eventually reach a price plateaux as the super rich, who are the only ones who can afford them, will find they have more than they need (kind of like my total whisky collection). the medium-range quality stuff will disappear into the high price stuff as companies hold on to some stocks longer and into the low range stuff, but even the low range stuff will increase in price until there is a balance between quality, price and demand. There will be no gems like OGD 114 at such a low price any more.

However, if you look at the second definition, what we may see is a little different. As we are now at peak demand, the distilleries are finding ways to meet that demand and make as much money as possible. So the premium stuff is jacked up in price (we've seen this with BTAC and now Booker's) which has dual effect of cooling demand and increasing profit. There is an increase in capacity using less than ideal wood. The loss of moderately priced stuff and intermediate priced stuff appears similar to the previous scenario but the ultimate effect is different. For price or scarcity or choice people move to the next fad, and demand plummets. You get the same scenario as the 1980s Scotch crash. Too much stock that can't be sold. Prices start to drop. Barrels are held longer because no one wants to bottle anything they can't sell. In 10-15 years we will get better stuff for relatively less money, some brands will not survive, and then those dead brands will become collectors items, drive up demand and price, and it all starts all over again.

In either case, the only winners, aside from the rich multinationals, will be those collector/drinkers who stop buying and rely on their bunkers, and enjoy the ride, while watching desirable overpriced whiskies come and go and while they occasionally crack a lost brand like OGD 114 and toast the old days.

I will be happy to shelter anyone from the coming storm if they arrive at my bunker...

@Nozinan,

you put forth the question, "Alberta Distillers owned by Beam Suntori? This may foreshadow unpleasant changes to come."

Canadian producers are all about volume. Long-aged whisky is an inconvenience and basically a vanity play. Cask strength Canadian whisky is a rare item and perhaps the smallest category of all whisky categories.

Participation in the recent renaissance of Canadian whisky is as much a defensive tactic by the large producers (albeit too late), to squeeze upstarts and smaller producers out of the game, as it is a play to capture the growing ultra-premium sector. Forty Creek managed to gain some market share while the big boys were napping and Highwood/Century has gained a few linear feet of shelf space in retail stores as well as being a supplier to Independents. The target market for the big players is south of the 49th parallel (give or take two or three seconds). The United States of America is the largest market for Canadian whisky, always has been, and always will be. That is where the marketing and distribution aim of Canadian distillers has been focused, the rest is gravy.

How do the big producers fight back against the micro-distilleries and niche players? Cheap pricing won't work because large Canadian producers have been pumping out the 40% abv. mixing whisky at market friendly prices for decades. Creating Super Premium expressions and letting loose brand ambassadors and well armed sales reps to fan the flames of this hot sector effectively smothers the small producers, at all levels and on all fronts.

The key to keeping ultra-premium Canadian whisky on retail store shelves is to continue to support the smaller distillers, and by doing so, continue to force the hand of the large producers.

The big producers couldn't give a shit about having 18 or 21 year old whisky on store shelves, at least not until the small producers start to do it.

@MuddyFunster,

We can only that the wheels do indeed come off. The potential for long-aged whiskies would be tremendous due to the abundance of aging stocks. Buying a cask or two would become a much more realistic possibility.

I was meaning peak demand. And yes the Scotch crash of the 80s is the disaster model.

I think Scotch is definitely heading for trouble. There is a still a large scale expansion going on and demand is already falling globally.

There has been a renaissance in boutique gins and artisan vodkas (in other words higher priced non aged spirits which companies make a fortune from) which is taking a large chunk of the market in the U.K. Long may that continue so there are less people drinking aged stock.

I have started to buy aged rums as an alternative to some scotch. Mount Gay XO, El Dorado 12, Appleton 12 and a few others make a nice change and anything from Foursquare are worth a dram and are still reasonably priced but expect that to change as Bourbon prices rise the demand on rum will just cause that to be priced accordingly.

Also will be getting some more tequila in the cupboard found a nice reposado or Anejo very refreshing in the summer yet to pull the trigger on the Don Julio 1942 but keep eyeing it up. Wish I had started to build a collection years ago and had enough to last a lifetime but living in hope the bubble bursts and prices start to drop.

@MuddyFunster, @Pete1969,

Normalcy bias being exhibited by these smug bastards. These marketing types can't see the forest for the trees. Instead of building upon the existing model for production and distribution they turned it upside down by declaring that taste is the focus for new releases and not age. Well, that being the case, the door to the bar has been left wide open, with no cover charge...Hello vodka and gin!

Many consumers were captivated by the age statements on bottles. We are now being told by the same producers that age doesn't matter. Taste is the defining quality. News flash! Price is the game changer. Substitution can be both a cruel mistress and a welcomed change.

I won't be reverting to martinis any time soon as my bunker is well stocked, but I know many who will.

@paddockjudge

I don't think it's fair to say that taste, rather than age, is the focus here. OGD 114 is NAS, likely young to mid age for a bourbon form what I've read, but on the young side. By all rights it should remain as the throughput for a younger whisky is more efficient and it is one of the best tasting Beam products. But they are discontinuing it.

I would suggest to you that it is short term profit taking that is the focus here, not taste, not age.

@Nozinan, you missed my point. perhaps I didn't present it clearly. I was responding to, and agreeing with, the comments of @MuddyFunster and @Pete1969. The Single malt producers have been preaching the importance of age for years and now have changed their verbage to promote taste instead...nothing to do with OGD114, but keep in mind that many more Beam bourbons had age statements in the past than they do today. Knob Creek and Basil Hayden are now NAS. Beam Black is 6 years old outside of the U.S. Where it is 8 YO. High proof bourbon prices must climb or they will be discontinued. Beam is a business, not a social club. The bottom line will prevail...at all costs.

@paddockjudge Valid, but whisky is more than a normal commodity like gold or iron or nickel...

It has a history, a mystique, and the people who produce it (not the owners, clearly) often care about the craft.

I guess there are not enough of us who care about the nuanced qualities of well-made whiskies to support so many individual expressions. I mean we can't buy and store enough (or drink enough) for the producers to make enough of a profit to keep them

Personally, I think there should be profit to be had in keeping a high quality whisky like OGD 114, but I guess someone for whom money is not the key in life wouldn't understand the big drinks business...

@Nozinan, I suppose there is only enough space at Beam for one Basil Hayden, the NAS 80 proof variety, not the 114 proof plastic bottle.

@paddockjudge. They have a 114 proof Basil Hayden's?

@Nozinan,

Yes, Beam has a 114 proof Basil Hayden; he is also known as OGD.

@Pete1969 I started to turn towards Bourbon when most of my favorite scotches crossed the $100 threshold. I still buy more American whisky than anything else, but my rum collection has been steadily growing. In a $100 Bookers world, I think rum will hold the best return on flavor and value.

@MuddyFunster & @Nozinan, for what it's worth, I believe the normal definition of "peak X" is the point at which QUANTITY of X produced hits its maximum.

It's a really interesting point in the story of any good, at least for those who find some appeal in economics. The story up to that point is the economic story we're all used to: Producers keep making more to satisfy demand. But then...

•What happens to cause smaller production in one year versus the previous year? Does the downward trend continue?

•What happens to the unused production capacity?

•What, if anything, satisfies the demand that's no longer going toward this particular good?

•And what happens to prices?

It can all get a little crazy.

@paddockjudge, Jim Beam Black Label went from 8 yo to NAS about 2 years ago in the US. I would guess that the domestic product, now labeled "Extra Aged", is probably now more like 6 years old, though NAS. The NAS Jim Beam Black is priced about the same as the old 8 year aged stated product was. I have not tasted any of the "Extra Aged" version.

@Victor,

I have a bottle of Beam black label, purchased about a year ago. It has an age statement of 6 years and is "triple aged", which I would guess is 3 x 2 years.

@newreverie Agreed, my Rum collection is growing as well, my sister is sending me Rum Nation Panama 21 years and Ron Cartivio XO for Christmas. This will bring my Rum bottle count to over 20. I do have a few that are not Sugar bombs but tasty is tasty.

@Astroke My rum collection is limited to Flor de Cana, Smith and Cross, and Havana Club (purchased in Havana).

@paddockjudge, yes the Jim Beam Black Label sold outside the US was a 6 yo, "triple aged" times the minimum 2 years for straight bourbon. The now-discontinued Jim Beam Black Label US 8 yo label called itself "double aged", i.e. double the usual assumed straight bourbon standard of 4 years old. Odd choices of labeling. I did put a few bottles of that 8 yo Jim Beam Black Label away when I first heard that it was being discontinued.

@Nozinan you may try Kirk and Sweeney - beautiful bottle with tasty juice inside, not overly sweet, and the price is unbelievably fair for the 23yo.

@Nozinan Havana Club Selection de Maestros is really nice at 90 proof, my favorite is Berry Bros. & Rudd Caribbean XO, Legendary Caroni Distillery 92 proof. Easily the best Whiskey alternative I have had. Would love to get some of those Velier Cask strength Caroni Rums.

The LCBO blew out the BBR Caroni's for $45 a couple of years ago and all I could get was 1. Had I known what this would taste like I would have purchased more at retail. I think Serge scored this as 1 of the best he had not including the cask strength Veliers. Any Rum with added sugar he trashes. I would recommend either El Dorado EHP Single Barrel or Brugal 1888. Reason's, they are for sale at their previous discounted prices (50% off and cheapest in the world) and have no or little sugar additives.

@mystycreek Unfortunately Kirk & Sweeney in Ontario is a ludicrous $86 cad for the 12 year old Vanilla Bomb. I cannot speak for @Nozian but this one may not be in his wheelhouse. I believe the 23 year old sells for about $45 in the US.

@Astroke oops, my bad. The 23 yo is about $65 and 12yo $45 here in Taiwan, how strange that $86 cad price is in LCBO.

@mystycreek Being in Taiwan you have access to Canadian Rockies 35 year, would love to get my hands on that one.